Monday, May 28, 2012

What is the difference between risk-neutral and real-world default probabilities?

Risk-neutral probabilities assume that all investors are risk neutral, i.e. they care only about the return. The default probabilities implied from bond yields are risk-neutral.

Real-world probabilities are those implied by historical data. Real-world default probabilities are usually higher than risk-neutral default probabilities because corporate bonds are relatively illiquid, the returns on corporate bonds are higher than they would otherwise be to compensate for this. This is however only a small part of the explanation.

Another reason is that the subjective default probabilities of bond traders are much higher than those given  by historical data. Also, bonds do not default independently of each other. This gives rise to systematic risk and bond traders earn a an excess return over the risk-neutral default probability to bear this risk.

Idiosyncratic risk in the bond market cannot be diversified away as easily as in the equity market because of their limited upside. This further raises the premium.

52 comments:

Anonymous said...

the RN PD is higher than the real world one.
YA

Anonymous said...

why don't just point out the page in Hull's book where you copied your post from?

Anonymous said...

What useless article.. First giving wrong info, and the whole article is just copied from hull book

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Anonymous said...

Hello, my name is Evans Dominique from the United States am here to give a testimonial on how I met one of the best Hacker so far on my incredible moment of pain I lost a huge amount of money to a fake investor, I invested 105,000 USD to this investment company with my belief that I will have a huge return when it was time for me to get my return they company no longer pick my calls or reply to my email I was so devasted that my sister saw my pain and sad sorrow she have no choice than to introduce me to this great hacker called Wizard Brixton. I tell him everything about my situation and he asked for the company email address and the mobile number he promises to help me retrieval my funds if I will be able to cooperate and give him the vital information needed less than 24 hours he was able to give me the necessary details about the company and how he will get my funds back without the company approval. Contact him: Wizardbrixton@gmail.com WhatsApp with (+1- /807-23 ) 4-0428 ;) I was very happy when he recovered all my funds and gave me 2% of the profit the company could have given to me. so I promise to make him go viral for everyone to contact him in different aspects of hacking software program in your life he proves the best in his job CONTACT HIM: Wizardbrixton@gmail.com

Anonymous said...

Two years ago I was deep in debt; I had $90,000 in debt, including $30,420 in credit card debt. My credit score was very poor, in the low 500s. I was advised to file bankruptcy (7) which I did. Most of my debts were removed in bankruptcy; I was left with $7,000 car loan and $41,000 in student loans. Determined not to make the same mistake again, I made on-time monthly payments for both of these loans. In 18 months my score has risen to 600s. After my marriage I requested for a home loan only to be turned down severally because of the negatives still lurking on my report + I needed a score of at least 700. A realtor introduced me to (760Plus Credit Score) a credit specialist who had been helping her client. They raised my score to 780s in less than 11days. Thanks to Debra and 760Plus I’ve got my pre-approval letter and I’m ready to go home shopping. I recommend 760Plus for any one in need of credit fix, you can reach them via 760pluscreditscore at gmail dot com, and you can thank me later.

Roger Susan said...

What a relieve knowing that my credit has been improved. A score of Equifax: 538 and TransUnion: 527, collections and public records on my credit made it practically impossible for me to move on with my plans of getting A PERSONAL LOANS to consolidate my debts after much disapprovals. REVOX CREDIT SPECIALIST came true for me after I contacted him on REVOXCREDITSPECIALIST@GMAIL.COM and subscribed to his services. Today, my fico is above 762 across all credit bureaus and all derogatory marks cleared from my credit report.

Lauritz Schyler said...


Hello Everyone have you heard of the latest Hacker in town I was down with a poor credit score and I was trying to upgrade it but to no avail, until I meet wizardbrixton@gmail.com he help me to upgrade and increase my credit score a wonderful Hacker you can ever imagine
= Wizard in Social media hack

=Remove Criminal Records

= Recovery of your lost voicemail

=Hack bank accounts

=increase your credit score

=increase your credit card limit

= wipe your credit card debt

=Mastercard, PayPal, Bitcoin, WU, Money Gram with untraceable

=Top up your Bitcoin

+He also hacked Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat,

= All social media hack mobile spy

=Contact him on: WIZARDBRIXTON AT GMAIL DOT COM

=Quick Respond on : +1- /807-23 ) 4-0428

66number said...

CONTACT US FOR ALL KINDS OF HACKING JOBs @ We offer professional hacking services,we offer the following services;
-University grades changing
-Bank accounts hack
-Erase criminal records hack
-Facebook hack
-Twitters hack
-email accounts hack
-Grade Changes hack
Contact us on whatsapp + 1 681 532 3704
Email- n17833408@gmail.com

CATCH CHEATING SPOUSE said...

If you feel stuck in your relationship/marriage knowing well that the connection and trust is broken but you don't have enough evidence to break off then contact Dennis on DENNISDFIXER@GMAIL.COM or +1 609 451 7368. He can grant you access to your partners social media accounts, emails and text messages so you can be sure what your partner is up to.. he helped me with what I needed to finalize my divorce and gain custody.. get in touch with him if you in need of such help.

Anonymous said...

BITCOIN, BINARY OPTION: Please everyone should be careful and stop being fooled by all these brokers and account managers, they scammed me over $9,000 of my investment capital, they kept on requesting for extra funds before a withdrawal request can be accepted and processed, in the end, I lost all my money. All efforts to reach out to their customer support desk had declined, I found it very hard to move on. God so kind I followed a broadcast that teaches on how scammed victims can recover their fund, I visited Cryptorefunder360(at)gmail(dot)com a recovery website, I got feedback after some hours and I was asked to provide all legal details concerning my investment, I did exactly what they instructed me to do without delay, to my greatest surprise I was able to recover my money back including my profit which my capital generated. I said I will not hold this to myself but share it to the public so that all scammed victims can get their funds back,  if you have problems on any stuffed like a Recovering Scammed funds, recover your Lost bitcoin, Bitcoin mining, visit Cryptorefuder360(at)gmail(dot)com or whatsapp +1 (681) 274-2542 now and get going.

Anonymous said...

I want to introduce you all to professional hackers called WizardJames. They are the best Hackers for funds Recovering. Bitcoin recovery, data recovery, Bank account payment recovery, Bitcoin hacks, School result upgrading, cryptocurrency, funds recovery, bitcoin Mining, Social media hacks and so much more. Chargers will only be collected after customers are certified and confirmed the completion of their job. For no reason do they collect payment before Service. But note that Customers would have to pay for Hacking Software if necessary before a job would be done. you can contact them through:
wizardjames8@gmail.com
WhatsApp number: +1 (863) 254-2842

Jessica said...

Hello everyone, If you are ever in need of a hacker, Wizard James is the right person to contact. They offer practically every hack, spy, cracking, recovery, bugging services and so much more. At first I wasn't too sure they could be able to help. I paid for their services and the software needed for the job. All I had to do next was to wait and see the result of the job and after 3 hours the result came to my email and I was very impressed. They are the best and I can strongly recommend their services to anyone who is interested in Cyber hack. I wish I could tell you all what they did for me but I can't because it's very personal. You can contact them via:
Email: wizardjames8@gmail.com
WhatsApp number: +1 (863) 254-2842

Laura L Bennet said...

I highly recommend Wardriver's Cyber service to help you recover your funds if you have ever been a victim of a bitcoin and cryptocurrency scam. I was contacted a few weeks ago on Instagram by someone claiming to be into investment and I could make huge profits on all my investment returns, I was moved by it and invested $70,000 into this cryptocurrency scam after he promised I will get a huge return on my investment in a few days, I realize it was all a scam when it was time to get my profits and they stopped responding to me and logged me out of my account on their platform. I heard about Wardriver's Cyber service from a colleague of mine and how they can help me recover my funds by hacking into their system. I contacted them and provide them with the information they requested and my funds were refunded to me within 24 hours. I feel relieved and thought it would be best to share this with many others out there who might need their service. You can contact them with the following information.
Email: wardriverscyberservice @techie.com
Whats-App/Tele-Gram: +1 ( 6 1 6) 8 9 8-7 2 8 5

Jeremy Miller said...

Metronet Credit Solution is the best in terms of credit repair. I had many negative items on my credit report that were holding me back. I had late payments, inquiries collections, charge-offs and card debts which I had totally paid off and I am not sure of the others but they were all 3 years old. I filed bankruptcy a year ago and settled all of these. I was so surprised when I found out they were still on my reports. I recently got referred by my sister to hire Metronet via (METRONETCREDITSOLUTION at GMAIL dot COM) which I did and he helped me fix my credit report. I’m recommending him for anyone in need of credit repair. He is just the best.

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