Apple Watch sales prediction based on Google Trends data

Back in September 2014, I estimated that the unit sales of the Apple Watch will be 2700 000 in the first three months of sales. The number is based on the correlation between Google searches around the announcement for the iPhone and iPad. Later on in October I revised the number down to 400 000 based on low interest for the product.

When compared to the interest in the iPhone and iPad, the Apple Watch is still lagging behind. In fact, the iPod generates more Google Searches than the Apple Watch.

Industry analysts expect Apple to sell between 10-30 million watches in the first year, or 4-7.5 million per quarter. Even if 400 000 is way too low, the low search interest for the watch indicates that sales will be lower than what analysts predict.

Google Trends data is always two days behind, so we will have to wait until Wednesday to see how the Apple Watch launch compares to the iPad and iPhone. So far, it doesn't look great.

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