Apple Watch sales prediction based on Google Trends data

Back in September 2014, I estimated that the unit sales of the Apple Watch will be 2700 000 in the first three months of sales. The number is based on the correlation between Google searches around the announcement for the iPhone and iPad. Later on in October I revised the number down to 400 000 based on low interest for the product.

When compared to the interest in the iPhone and iPad, the Apple Watch is still lagging behind. In fact, the iPod generates more Google Searches than the Apple Watch.

Industry analysts expect Apple to sell between 10-30 million watches in the first year, or 4-7.5 million per quarter. Even if 400 000 is way too low, the low search interest for the watch indicates that sales will be lower than what analysts predict.

Google Trends data is always two days behind, so we will have to wait until Wednesday to see how the Apple Watch launch compares to the iPad and iPhone. So far, it doesn't look great.

More on the methodology

How successful was the Apple Watch announcement compared to the iPhone and iPad? (Google Trends comparison)

Update 24.10: as of today, the search volume for the apple watch when compared to the iPhone and iPad has fallen to zero for the previous week. The fall is simliar to that of the other products, and indicates that the interest is significantly lower for the watch. This Fortune article lists some sales predictions made by analysts.Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein, says that their initial estimate of 30 million units sold in the first year appears high. Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray, puts sales at 5-10 million units, closer to my estimate of 2.7 million units in the first three months of sales.

By the look of the Google Trends chart for the Apple Watch, the launch was a big success. But how does it compare to the iPhone and iPod announcements? Not very well, it turns out. I compared the relative search volumes 30 weeks before and after the product announcements, and it seems like the interest for the Apple Watch is lukewarm in comparison.

Compared to other products in the wearables category however, the Apple Watch is clearly ahead after the announcement.

The search data suggests that the Apple Watch won't be as big a hit as their other products, but Apple is likely to be a winner in the wearables category.

What can we say about their sales figures from the data?There seems to be quite a strong correlation between the search volumes and the unit sales.

A scatterplot where the search volume is lagged two quarters has the highest explanatory power. The value of this is of course questionable. But if we put our doubts asside, and assume that the sensitivity of two quarter ahead unit sales is acurate, then the Apple Watch sales should be in the region of 2.7 million units in the first quarter of sales.