Update 24.10: as of today, the search volume for the apple watch when compared to the iPhone and iPad has fallen to zero for the previous week. The fall is simliar to that of the other products, and indicates that the interest is significantly lower for the watch. This Fortune article lists some sales predictions made by analysts.Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein, says that their initial estimate of 30 million units sold in the first year appears high. Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray, puts sales at 5-10 million units, closer to my estimate of 2.7 million units in the first three months of sales.
By the look of the Google Trends chart for the Apple Watch, the launch was a big success. But how does it compare to the iPhone and iPod announcements? Not very well, it turns out. I compared the relative search volumes 30 weeks before and after the product announcements, and it seems like the interest for the Apple Watch is lukewarm in comparison.
Compared to other products in the wearables category however, the Apple Watch is clearly ahead after the announcement.
The search data suggests that the Apple Watch won't be as big a hit as their other products, but Apple is likely to be a winner in the wearables category.
What can we say about their sales figures from the data?There seems to be quite a strong correlation between the search volumes and the unit sales.
A scatterplot where the search volume is lagged two quarters has the highest explanatory power. The value of this is of course questionable. But if we put our doubts asside, and assume that the sensitivity of two quarter ahead unit sales is acurate, then the Apple Watch sales should be in the region of 2.7 million units in the first quarter of sales.
1 comment:
How do we get the csv file download directly ..??
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