Monday, September 22, 2014

Google Trends and stock indexes

The return of a stock index is the sum of the individual returns of the consituents. Is there a similar relationship for search words. I.e. is the searches for "FTSE 100" similar to the average searches for the index constituents?

The black line is the searches for "FTSE 100". The red line is the average search volume for companies in the FTSE 100 index. The data has been detrended and missing values have been interpolated.

There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between the two. Nevertheless, a regression reveals that the relationship is statistically significant, allthough the magnitude is very small with a coefficeint of 0.039 (16.011).

We can conclude that there is no economically meaningful correlation between the two.




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