Twitter Q3 2015 MAU growth forecast

Twitter just released their Q2 earnings, and with their stagnating user growth in mind, I wanted to take a look at their expected user growth in Q3 given the current trend in Internet search volumes for Twitter.

Past log changes in monthly active users (MAU) has had a strong correlation with log change in average quarterly search volumes. That's what we'll use for the prediction.

Then, let's assume that the current search volume trend continues into Q3 (forecasted figures in red below).

Based on the historical correlation, we can then forecast the change in MAUs from Q2 to Q3.

That should mean an average of 335 million monthly active users in Q3. If we extend the forecast to Q4, that gives us 346 million MAUs.

Twitter has stopped growing in the US, and all the growth in Q2 is from abroad. Are there any markets where search volumes trends are positive? There are stable or slightly decreasing SVI volumes in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

The trajectory is negative in France, Spain, Italy, Ukraine, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Canada, and Kazakhstan.

There only places I've found with a positive trend is Portugal, Argentina and South Korea. 

It will be interesting to see how actual search volume interest develops during Q3.