Rovio forecasted revenue 2014 versus actuals

Back in March, I claimed that Rovio's revenue would decline from €153.5 M. to €152 M. The actuals are out, and it seems like I was only off by €4 M. Even better, the model could forecast a change in trend based on Google search data, which is very interesting to see.

The model used was slightly different from the one used for forecasting Supercell's revenue for the year. Previously I have worked with the direct correlation between revenue and search volume. This time, a log change model was instead used, and proved to be effective in this case.

Here's the previous post containing the forecast.

Financial ratio summary

Rovio Entertainment Oy	2010/12	2011/12	2012/12	2013/12	2014/12
Companys turnover (1000 EUR)	5232	75395	152171	153516	148332
Turnover change %	622.10	620.60	101.80	0.90	-3.40
Result of the financial period (1000 EUR)	2600	35356	55615	25898	7964
Operating profit %	56.60	62.10	50.50	22.80	6.70
Company personnel headcount	-	98	311	547	729

Rovio revenue estimate 2014

Is there a correlation between Rovio's revenue and the amount of Google searches for their most popular title Angry Birds? Admittedly, we only have three data points to go on, but they do line up nicely. The upper chart plots the log change in search volume (x-axis) against revenue (y-axis). Based on that correlation, Rovio's revenue should decline somewhat in 2014, to 152 million €.

Part 2 in our mini documentary on Helsinki as a future startup hub asks two important questions. Can Helsinki be it, and what pieces are missing for Helsinki to become a startup hub?

We get to hear Alexander Stubb talk about the work being done from the government to support this ambition. Scott Sage from DFJ Esprit says Helsinki is one of the undiscovered gems in the tech industry.

The attitude and mentality of people are both important parts of a startup hub, says minister Stubb, infrastructure is also important. Aaron Patzer highlights the heritage from Linux, Nokia and MySQL. Peter Vesterbacka from Rovio says we are on the right track.

In part 1, we hear the visiting founders presenting themselves. We also hear that Aalto Entrepreneurship Society has some ambitious goals for Finland in the future.