Friday, May 22, 2015

International invoicing for businesses

If you are accepting bank transfers from customers abroad, you are likely to face steep bank fees. To get an idea of how much you could save by using an alternative payment provider such as TransferWise, look at the example below. On a £1000 transaction, you get €60 more with TransferWise.

Savings calculator Total
Amount to convert £
Your savings

TransferWise Your average bank
GBP/EUR
Fees £
You get

Thursday, May 21, 2015

TransferWise's community visualized

Click image for high-res version.

From the TransferWise blog:

As TransferWise grows we notice something pretty special – our members love sharing the service with friends.  To say thanks, the TransferWise referral programme was born. Now, you’re rewarded if you refer a friend to TransferWise.

Created with R and Gephi.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Rovio revenue estimate 2014

Is there a correlation between Rovio's revenue and the amount of Google searches for their most popular title Angry Birds? Admittedly, we only have three data points to go on, but they do line up nicely. The upper chart plots the log change in search volume (x-axis) against revenue (y-axis). Based on that correlation, Rovio's revenue should decline somewhat in 2014, to 152 million €.


Supercell revenue 2014 is 1.55 billion €, compared to forecasted 1.7 billion €

How powerful is Google Trends for predicting revenue of Internet compaines? This is just one data point, but my previous prediction for Supercell's 2014 revenue was not far off.

Supercell's revenue for 2014 was 1.55 billion €, compared to my prediction of 1.7 billion €.



The next prediction I have my eye on is for the Apple Watch. Google Trends data suggests that the Apple Watch will sell well below what market analysts expect. While the launch of the Apple Watch did create some buzz on search engines, that quickly died out.

Another mobile games company from Finland is Rovio. If would be interesting to see if the correlation holds up for them as well. It's not looking good.

Monday, March 09, 2015

Apple Watch sales prediction based on Google Trends data

Back in September 2014, I estimated that the unit sales of the Apple Watch will be 2700 000 in the first three months of sales. The number is based on the correlation between Google searches around the announcement for the iPhone and iPad. Later on in October I revised the number down to 400 000 based on low interest for the product.

When compared to the interest in the iPhone and iPad, the Apple Watch is still lagging behind. In fact, the iPod generates more Google Searches than the Apple Watch.

Industry analysts expect Apple to sell between 10-30 million watches in the first year, or 4-7.5 million per quarter. Even if 400 000 is way too low, the low search interest for the watch indicates that sales will be lower than what analysts predict.

Google Trends data is always two days behind, so we will have to wait until Wednesday to see how the Apple Watch launch compares to the iPad and iPhone. So far, it doesn't look great.

More on the methodology



Friday, January 30, 2015

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Finland's most connected companies

How are the decision makers of listed companies in Finland connected? Using R for collecting decision maker data and D3 for visualizing the results, I have created this network chart (sorry for the ugly iframe):


Connections are the number of connections to other boards from one company to other. KONE's board members are for instance on 13 other boards. The most connected companies on Helsinki's stock exchange are Kone, Sponda and Teleste.

Company Connections
KONE Oyj 13
Sponda Oyj 12
Teleste Oyj 10
Outotec Oyj 10
Cargotec Oyj 10

The data has been filtered out so that only companies with at least one connection to another company are included. The data is collected from finder.fi and includes the company's management, board members, and other people with the right to sign for the company.
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